On Tuesday, Virginia voters dealt a devastating blow to the GOP in the nationwide redistricting battle by voting “yes” on a new congressional map that would give Democrats a 10-1 advantage in the state. With Democrats now narrowly edging out Republicans in the number of House seats up for grabs, the GOP is increasing pressure on Florida to conduct a redistricting effort of its own.
According to the New York Times, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has called a special session intended to begin a redistricting effort, but it’s been repeatedly delayed. The special session is allegedly beginning next week, but DeSantis has yet to introduce a map for the state legislature to vote on. Adding to the uncertainty is that Florida Republicans seem to have no intention of introducing a map of their own, though it remains to be seen if the result in Virginia has changed their attitude.
An anonymous GOP operative who has insight into DeSantis’s thinking told Politico that DeSantis “would still like to get something done on redistricting. But he realizes the atmospherics for the 2026 election are already in place, and it will be tough for Republicans to retain the House regardless of what happens in Florida.”
Whether it’s President Donald Trump’s continually dwindling polls, the consistent overperformance of Democrats in special elections, or the No Kings protests that have only been increasing in scale, Americans en masse have taken a page from Future and Metro Boomin by loudly telling the GOP, “We don’t trust you.” This dynamic has even played out in Florida, where Miami elected its first Democrat mayor in decades, and a Democratic state legislator won a special election to represent the district where Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort is located.
There is understandable concern among Florida Republicans that, in this current landscape, any attempt to redistrict Florida’s congressional map could wind up stretching their voters thin and inadvertently provide Democrats an advantage in the state. Nationwide, there’s frustration among Republican operatives that they’ve spent all this time and money on a mid-decade redistricting effort only to come out as the losers. Especially since the redistricting battle was started last year after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott triggered a redistricting effort that gave Republicans four new House seats.
“If you’re going to pick a fight, at least win it,” Ari Fleischer, a former White House press secretary for President George W. Bush, said on X. “The other side will always fight back. All this was foreseeable and avoidable. We should not have started this fight.”
“I don’t think the president, as well as national Republicans, took into account what the Democratic reaction to this Texas gambit would be,” Rice University political science professor Mark Jones told KVUE. “The reaction has actually been to increase the number of Democratic seats to a point where Republicans are right now losers in this whole redistricting process and probably will only be able to break even or slightly ahead if Florida engages in a redistricting process that’s successful.”
Fleischer and Jones both get to a point that I’ve long found bizarre about the Republican redistricting push, which is that they thought Democratic states were just going to sit there and let them gerrymander their way to a midterms win. While many (myself included) view congressional Democrats as largely ineffective, there are plenty of Democratic governors and state legislators who are willing to squabble and have proved as much through these redistricting efforts.
If Florida doesn’t pull off a successful redistricting effort, the GOP’s only hope of regaining the advantage will come through the courts. Virginia Republicans have consistently tried to challenge the state’s redistricting effort in courts, with Tazewell County Circuit Court Judge Jack Hurley being sympathetic to those efforts. On Wednesday, Hurley ruled that the votes from Tuesday’s referendum were “ineffective” and blocked state officials from certifying the vote.
The Virginia Supreme Court is expected to make the final ruling on the legality of Virginia’s redistricting effort. Should they rule in favor of the Democrats, then the GOP’s already poor prospects of maintaining control of the House worsen.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: if the GOP spent as much time finding solutions to the cost-of-living crisis as they did trying to gerrymander the midterms, they probably wouldn’t be in this position. White Americans have shown they can tolerate racism, but high prices? That’s where they draw the line.
SEE ALSO:
Virginia Voters Narrowly Pass Redistricting Referendum
Virginia Voters Set To Decide Whether Redistricting Measure Passes
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